Does Past Sales Success Predict Success at Your Company?

Candidate Assessment
Written by Ashley Wesley

Past sales success predicts less than most owners expect, because sales performance depends partly on the company around the salesperson. A strong track record tells you a candidate could win in one setting, with one product, one brand and one set of relationships, but research on star performers shows that results often drop when people change firms. The useful question isn't "did they hit quota?" It's "what made them hit quota, and do we have that here?"

Why do owners trust the track record so much?

Here's the fair part. A record of hitting quota is real evidence. It's a lot better than a nice interview. Someone who has carried a number for five years and beaten it most of the time has shown discipline, resilience and at least some selling skill. "Past performance is the best predictor of future performance" became a hiring cliché for a reason.

The problem underneath is that the record belongs partly to the person and partly to the place. The brand that opened doors. The territory they inherited. The sales engineer who did the hard technical calls. The marketing team that fed them leads. The customer relationships that came with the job. None of that comes with them when they move.

What happens to star performers when they switch companies?

The best-known research on this comes from Boris Groysberg at Harvard Business School. Groysberg, Lee and Nanda (2008) followed star equity research analysts on Wall Street from 1988 to 1996. Analysts are a useful group to study because their performance is measured every year (Lagace, 2008).

What they found: "Star analysts who switched employers experienced an immediate decline in performance that persisted for at least five years" (Groysberg et al., 2008, abstract). The study's publisher summed it up bluntly: hiring stars was advantageous "neither to stars themselves, in terms of their performance, nor to hiring companies in terms of their market value" (INFORMS, 2008).

But the drop wasn't the same for everyone, and the exceptions are the most useful part:

  • Moving with a team. Analysts who "moved with other team members exhibited no significant decline" (Groysberg et al., 2008, abstract).
  • Moving to a stronger firm. Analysts who moved to firms with better capabilities also showed no significant decline (Groysberg et al., 2008).
  • Star women. In Groysberg's follow-up work, "Star women who switched firms exhibit no decline in performance" (Lagace, 2008). One reason he gave: women "do far more due diligence when they receive a job offer than men do" (Lagace, 2008).

Groysberg later expanded this into a book drawing on more than a thousand star analysts and more than 200 interviews (Groysberg, 2010).

The honest caveat: these were analysts, not salespeople. The lesson for sales is our reading of the research, not something the study tested directly. We think it carries over well, since both jobs mix personal skill with things the employer supplies. But hold it as a strong hint, not a law.

Does years of experience predict performance?

Barely, according to a large recent review. Van Iddekinge et al. (2019) pulled together 81 independent samples and found that pre-hire work experience had a corrected correlation of just .06 with later job performance and .00 with turnover. Their conclusion: these measures "generally are poor predictors of future performance and turnover" (abstract).

One nuance matters a lot here. That research measured experience (how much, how long, or what kind), not verified results. Even experience in relevant jobs predicted performance only weakly (Van Iddekinge et al., 2019). So the right takeaway isn't "past results mean nothing." It's "years on a résumé tell you very little, and even real results need to be checked against the conditions that produced them."

If you want to confirm the numbers themselves, our post on verifying a salesperson's quota claims walks through it.

What about promoting your top rep?

A related trap is assuming success in one sales job predicts success in a different one. Benson, Li and Shue (2019) studied sales workers at 131 firms and found evidence that firms "prioritize current job performance in promotion decisions at the expense of other observable characteristics that better predict managerial performance" (abstract): the best salespeople get promoted and tend to make worse managers. Great selling and great managing are different jobs. A track record in one doesn't transfer automatically to the other, inside your own company or out.

How to tell whether a candidate's success will travel

  1. Ask what they had that you don't. "What did your last company give you that made your results possible?" Listen for brand, leads, territory, pricing power, technical support and inherited accounts. Candidates who can answer clearly understand their own results. Candidates who say "nothing, it was all me" are telling you something too.
  2. Ask what they built themselves. "Which of your top ten accounts did you open from scratch?" Then, "How did you find them?" Self-built results are more likely to travel than inherited ones.
  3. Match the conditions, not just the industry. Compare the deal size, sales cycle, buyer, price position and support model between their last job and yours. A rep who sold a market leader's product to warm leads is moving into a different job if you're the unknown challenger and they'll be cold calling.
  4. Check the results with someone who saw them. References from a former manager can confirm quota, ranking and how much of the book was inherited. Our post on reference checks for sales hires has the questions.
  5. Test the skills directly. A structured interview and a realistic sales scenario show you how they sell, not just what they sold. Our structured interview guide explains the scoring.
  6. Plan for the dip. Even a good hire will lose some ground while they learn your product and build relationships. Set first-year expectations with that in mind, and decide in advance what support they'll get.
  7. Watch what you can't bring over. In Ontario, employers can't enter into non-compete agreements with employees on or after October 25, 2021, with exceptions for some executives and some sales of a business (Government of Ontario, n.d.). Non-solicitation clauses can still limit what customers follow a salesperson, so don't hire anyone on the promise of their old book. Our posts on non-competes in Ontario and non-solicitation clauses cover the details. Confirm with employment counsel.

Two things that are both true

We'll own our part of this. Recruiters and HR people, us included, have repeated "past performance predicts future performance" for years because it's simple and it sells candidates. It's half right.

A real track record is still worth more than a polished interview. And a track record earned somewhere else, with someone else's brand, leads and support, is a promise you'll have to test. For owners here in Guelph and across Ontario, the safest bet is a candidate whose past results came from skills they carry with them, checked against what your company can actually give them.

In short

Past sales success is useful evidence, but it often doesn't transfer cleanly to a new company. Star analysts who switched firms saw their performance drop for at least five years, except when they moved with their team, moved to a stronger firm, or were women who did more homework before moving (Groysberg et al., 2008; Lagace, 2008). Years of experience barely predict performance at all (Van Iddekinge et al., 2019). Ask what made the candidate's results possible, and whether your company can offer the same.

Key takeaways

  • Star analysts who switched employers saw an immediate performance decline that lasted at least five years (Groysberg et al., 2008).
  • Analysts who moved with their team showed no significant decline (Groysberg et al., 2008).
  • Star women who switched firms showed no decline, and did more due diligence on job offers (Lagace, 2008).
  • Pre-hire work experience had a corrected correlation of .06 with later job performance across 81 samples (Van Iddekinge et al., 2019).
  • Firms promote their best salespeople, who then become worse managers, in a study of sales workers at 131 firms (Benson et al., 2019).
  • The best predictor of whether results will travel is understanding what produced them.

Frequently asked questions

Is past performance the best predictor of future performance?

Not on its own. A verified track record is useful, but research on star performers shows results often drop after a move to a new firm (Groysberg et al., 2008), and years of experience predict later performance only weakly (Van Iddekinge et al., 2019).

Why do top salespeople struggle at new companies?

Part of their success came from things their old employer supplied: brand, leads, territory, technical support and relationships. Those don't move with them. Research on star analysts found the drop was smaller when people moved with their team or to a stronger firm (Groysberg et al., 2008).

Should I hire a salesperson from a competitor for their customer list?

Be careful. Ontario bans most employee non-compete agreements made since October 25, 2021, but non-solicitation clauses can still limit which customers a salesperson can pursue. Hire for skills that travel, not for a book of business that may not. This is general information, not legal advice; confirm with employment counsel.

How long before a new sales hire performs like they did before?

It depends on the sale. Even skilled hires need time to learn a new product, market and team. Set first-year targets that allow for a ramp-up and decide what support they'll get.

Work with us

Down to your last few candidates? Our Final Candidate Review tests your finalists against your own best people before you make the offer. If it doesn't help, you don't pay.

This post is general information, not legal advice. Confirm employment decisions with employment counsel.

References

Ashley Wesley
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Should You Promote Your Best Rep or Hire a Sales Leader Externally?